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Erudite Risk | IRC Ltd.

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North Korea Crisis 2019 Forecast

TITLE: 2019 Outlook on the North Korea Crisis
SUBTITLE: Where do we go from here?


The current crisis on the Korean Peninsula, which is the latest iteration of the long-term standoff between the US, South Korea, and North Korea has been going on for nearly two years now. It is without question the main security risk to all companies operating in or relying on the Northeast Asia region today.

This forecast covers the current state of the North Korea-related crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the outlook for 2019, and an analysis of the possible ways the crisis could develop.

The focus of this report, like the focus of all of Erudite Risk’s intelligence products is on the crisis, itself, rather than on North Korea, or the leadership of the different actors involved. Our reports focus on crisis management, trigger and indicator analysis, understanding crisis logic, and crisis response, rather than on specific information about North Korea.

TAGS: North Korea Risk


Executive Summary
- Bottom Line First
- What 2017 Looked Like
2018 in Review
Understanding the Possibilities for 2019
- The Logic of 2019
- What the US Wants
- What North Korea Wants
2019 Forecast Takeaways 


North Korea Crisis Flowchart: Paths and Endgames
2017 KRM Trigger and Indicator Coverage
State of Inter-Korean and US-NK Relations in 2018
Major Events in 2018
Probability that US-NK Negotiations Situation Will Be Better, Worse, or Similar by a Given Date
Various Scenarios Stemming from Trump-Kim 2
What the US Seeks from Negotiations With North Korea
What North Korea Seeks from Negotiations with US

REPORT AUTHOR(S): Erudite Risk (Erudite Ltd.)

Erudite Risk is a risk management consultancy based in Seoul, Korea. We serve multinational organizations from around the world in the areas of crisis management, due diligence, security, and internal investigations.

We have created and helped design more crisis management plans for multinational organizations in Korea than anyone else on the Peninsula. Over the last 15 years of watching North-South crisis relations, we have developed our own unique, proprietary framework for understanding and preparing for a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

LAST DATE UPDATED: 1 January 2019

UPDATE POLICY: This report will not be updated.
LICENSE TERMS: This is a company/organization license. Purchasers may make copies for and share this report with colleagues within the same organization/company, but may not share it outside of the organization/company.

This report is distributed as a protected and encrypted PDF file. Customer identifiers are printed directly on the PDF.


INTERNATIONAL CUSTOMERS/INTERNATIONAL BILLING ADDRESS: This report is available for immediate purchase (PayPal) and download.

CUSTOMERS IN KOREA: Send us an email detailing the report you'd like to purchase and your contact information and we'll get back to you with payment options. Due to regulations in Korea, PayPal cannot be used for local customers. Email us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.